Second Brexit analysis leak shows harm of tighter migration rules

The government is to release a leaked Brexit analysis that shows the UK economy would be significantly worse off in every modelled scenario after it decided not to oppose a Labour motion calling for the documents to be issued.

The decision came as a second leak from the analysis emerged showing that tightening up Britain’s immigration system after Brexit would cause more economic damage than could be balanced out by any trade gains.

The paper suggested the negative impact of a strict migration regime, in which free movement was replaced with a policy similar to that for non-EU migrants, would dwarf the 0.2% boost to economic growth from a US trade deal.

And the study suggested such growth would even be cancelled out under a more relaxed immigration regime, according to the papers seen by BuzzFeed.

The initial report on the leak revealed that it predicts the UK will end up economically worse off under three possible Brexit scenarios: a comprehensive free trade deal, single market access and no deal at all.

Meanwhile a poll by the Best for Britain campaign group and YouGov showed shifting attitudes, with the public now expressing a preference for free trade with the EU over immigration controls.

The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, said the move to release the original analysis in full was “a victory for transparency and accountability” after the motion calling for the documents to be provided to MPs and the Brexit select committee was passed unanimously.

Asked by Starmer about when the papers would be released, the Speaker, John Bercow, ruled it should happen “as a matter of urgency”, as decreed in the motion.

After the debate, Starmer said Labour expected ministers to hand over the papers by the end of the week, though the exact timetable has yet to be determined.



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