The Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) has issued a stark warning that the world is in imminent danger of catastrophic climate change due to an unprecedented rate of change in the Arctic. The group’s assessment is based on the fact that methane levels in the atmosphere are now more than twice as high as any time since 400,000 years before the industrial revolution. As methane is more effectual than carbon dioxide at absorbing infrared radiation emitted from the earth’s surface and preventing it from escaping into space, the consequences of this could be catastrophic. The AMEG has called for urgent action to address this issue and prevent a potential extinction event.
Newly Identified Sources of Methane Emissions in Deep Arctic Seas
In 2012, expeditionary teams in the Arctic were astounded to discover methane bubbling up from deep ocean sites. Steve Connor of The Independent reported that these findings were made far away from land in the deep, open ocean, which is usually capped by ice. Eric Kort of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who had been observing methane levels rise from cracks in the sea ice, was surprised by the results. The study, published in Nature Geoscience, covered an area 950 miles north of the coast of Alaska and 350 miles south of the North Pole.
In a further development, a study published in The Daily Galaxy revealed immense amounts of methane locked under Antarctic ice. The potential amount of methane hydrate and free methane gas beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet was estimated to be up to 4 billion metric tons, comparable to some estimates made for Arctic permafrost. The shallow depth of these reserves makes them more susceptible to climate forcing than other methane hydrate reserves on Earth.
The Arctic is in Meltdown- At the same time, Methane Gushes into the Atmosphere
The Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) has declared an “extremely high international security risk of acute climate disruption followed by runaway global warming” due to the Arctic’s rapid meltdown. Scientists have observed large methane plumes rising from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, the largest continental shelf in the world, which is largely composed of shallow water. Dr. Igor Semiletov, head of the Russian research team surveying the seabed, has expressed astonishment at the scale and volume of the methane release. Dr. Natalia Shakhova of the International Arctic Research Centre has reported that the concentration of atmospheric methane has increased two to three times in the past two centuries – an unprecedented level in the history of the planet.
AMEG attributes this outbreak of methane to a cycle which began 20-30 years ago when Atlantic and Pacific Ocean currents, warmed by greenhouse gases, flowed into the Arctic Ocean. This extra heat has caused a decline in sea ice, increased temperatures and destabilized methane hydrates and free gas trapped in the permafrost cap. The sheer magnitude of methane in the continental shelf is so large that even a 1-2% release could lead to an unstoppable chain reaction of runaway overheating. In response to this alarming situation, some of the world’s leading climate scientists have formed AMEG to confront the threat of an extinction event on planet Earth.
Historical Methane Mass Extinction Event- “The Great Dying”
Around 200 million years ago, the world experienced a catastrophic event known as ‘The Great Dying’. This mass extinction event wiped out more than half of all life forms on the planet. Recent studies suggest that a volcanic eruption was the cause of the warming cycle that triggered the release of methane gas from underwater permafrost, similar to the current warming trend caused by human activity. This methane gas further amplified the warming, leading to conditions that were so extreme that mass extinction was the result. (George Papadakis, UK, Methane Gas Hydrates: A Potential Threat to Climate Stability, Climate Emergency Institute, Dec. 22, 2011.)
Arctic Methane Emergency Group
A new film released by the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) has revealed the urgent need to address the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice. Peter Wadhams, President of the International Association on Sea Ice and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge, has warned that the ice has lost around half its thickness over the past 40 years and that melting in summer is now greater than freezing in winter. James Hansen, adjunct professor at Columbia University, believes that this melting could lead to a ‘tipping point’ where ocean floor warming triggers the release of methane hydrate. This, combined with methane already bubbling up from thawing tundra, is clear evidence of the warming of Arctic Ocean waters.
David Wasdell, International Coordinator of the Meridian Programme, has further revealed that the rate of climate change is 200-300 times faster than any other extinction event in history. He also warned that we are already in a mass extinction event, with 40% of phytoplankton in the oceans lost as a result of human-induced climate change. Such a loss of primary food source could have dire consequences, with 40% of land crops disappearing and hordes of desperate people invading other countries for food and water. It is clear that the government must act now to address this crisis before it is too late.
Jet Stream Impact Threatens World Food Supply
The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, with far-reaching consequences for the entire Northern Hemisphere. As the Arctic warms, the jet streams that drive weather systems in the Northern Hemisphere become wavier and slower. This has resulted in extreme weather events across the region. In 2010, Pakistan experienced a month-long flood, while Moscow was hit with a 35-day heatwave that caused an estimated 50,000 additional deaths. In 2012, the United States suffered its worst drought since 1950, while Syria, India and other countries have had multiple droughts in recent years. These extreme weather events have had a devastating impact on food supplies, with devastating consequences for human populations.
Radical Climate Change in Arctic
The Arctic is facing a crisis of unprecedented proportions due to climate change. According to the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMEG), snow cover has decreased by 17-18% per decade over the past three decades, and sea ice is rapidly diminishing due to human-induced global warming. This has caused a collapse in the albedo effect, the reflection of the Sun’s radiation off the white ice and snow surfaces, resulting in the dark sea and land mass absorbing most of the Sun’s radiation.
Paul Beckwith, a physicist from the University of Ottawa, has observed a sharp increase in methane release since 2007. He believes that this could lead to a ‘tipping point’ in the climate, and that by 2020 the Arctic could be clear of sea ice for three months of the year. This would trigger runaway warming of the planet and fractured weather patterns, such as prolonged droughts or sudden torrential rains. It is a situation that could have catastrophic consequences for the entire world.
Solution?
The Arctic is facing a crisis, and geo-engineering has been proposed as a potential solution. Injecting sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere would act like a large volcanic eruption, blocking out sunlight and cooling the Arctic. However, experts from Harvard and UCLA have raised serious concerns about the value of geo-engineering without first establishing international protocols. Additionally, some scientists fear the potential consequences of a ‘Frankenstein atmosphere’ if humans begin to tamper with nature.
The lack of good solutions to the problem has raised the question of why governments have not been promoting renewable energy sources as a replacement for fossil fuels. Renewable energy technology is proven, and has been around for decades. Furthermore, renewables are climate friendly.
Ultimately, the failure of political leadership to address this issue may be the greatest in recorded history, assuming recordkeeping is still maintained in the event of an extinction event. This serves to emphasize the importance of human action in the face of climate change.
