How World War III became possible: A nuclear conflict with Russia is likelier than you think

VOX.com reports..

In August 2014, tensions began to mount as unmarked Russian troops invaded eastern Ukraine and the Russian air force began to harass the neighboring Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, all of which are members of NATO. The US responded by pledging to uphold its commitment to defend these countries as if they were American soil and later staged military exercises close to Russia’s border. 

This resulted in both sides believing that the other had more drastic intentions. Moscow is convinced that the West is aiming to isolate, subjugate, or even destroy Russia, and a third of Russians now believe that the US may invade. Meanwhile, Western nations are concerned that Russia could use the threat of war, or provoke an actual conflict, to fracture NATO and its commitment to defend Eastern Europe, thereby breaking the status quo order that has peacefully unified Europe under Western leadership and kept out Russian influence for 25 years.

Fears of a potential conflict between the United States and Russia have escalated in recent months, with both sides deploying military forces and conducting exercises in the Eastern European borderlands. President Putin has issued repeated warnings that he would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict. This has caused a tense atmosphere of instability in Europe, reminiscent of the lead up to World War I. Political tensions have been exacerbated by vague signals from leaders as to what would and would not lead to war, and a Cold War-era alliance that is no longer applicable. 

Despite the mounting danger, there is a sense of complacency in Western capitals. The complexity of the threats and the overlapping layers of risk make it difficult to foresee, manage, or avert the looming catastrophe. Nevertheless, the people of Eastern Europe are preparing for the worst, while the rest of the world remains unaware of the cloud hanging over them.

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