CO2 on Track for Largest Rise in 62 Years

by Robert Hunziker

Around the world, atypical climate change grows increasingly threatening to all life on the planet, principally because of excessive CO2 emissions. Paradoxically, this is happening on the heels of the Paris 2015 climate accord among nations of the world.

But, didn’t almost all of the countries of the world pledge to cut back greenhouse gas emissions?

Oh yes, they did, but CO2 emissions set new records year after year after year. Ever since Paris 2015 nothing positive has happened to halt global warming, almost nothing!

Granted, it’s true that renewable installations, especially in China, are hot items but so is fossil fuel usage, which had its largest increase in seven years in 2018. Ya gotta wonder: Where’s Waldo/Paris2015?

By all appearances, pledges to reduce greenhouse gases at Paris 2015 are fatigued because the climate system is staggering and sending early warning signs of rapid deterioration of key ecosystems that support life, which, in large measure, is caused by ever increasing bursts of CO2 emissions.

On January 25, 2019, the prestigious Met Office Hadley Centre/UK issued a dismal CO2 forecast: “Faster CO2 Rise Expected in 2019.”

“During 2019, Met Office climate scientists expect to see one of the largest rises in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in 62 years.”

As of today, 4 years since Paris 2015, CO2 is supposed to be plateauing or leveling, flattish, not roaring ahead in a 62-year ascendency to new record highs as it continues to ratchet up. Something’s horribly amiss about the pledges by countries to reduce CO2 emissions in order to minimize the risks of climate change/global warming. Those pledges are going backwards, falling into a deep black abyss.

Indeed, part of the problem is a function of the failure of natural carbon sinks to draw down CO2 like years past. This problem (gulp-gulp) is a double negative whammy as natural carbon sinks, like tropical rainforests (think the Amazon) and sweeping meadows with tall swaying grasses (think the Russian Steppes), keep humanity humming along in a Goldilocks planet, not too hot, not to cold, but maybe coming to an abrupt end, which implies too much climate stress with subsequent human warfare over depleting food supplies.

Meantime, “Climate Change Thugs” lead some of the world’s most powerful countries and summarily reject Paris 2015. Consequently, the countries that should be leading a WWII-effort Marshall Plan to convert to 75%-100% renewables are knee-deep in obstructionism and antagonism, which goes to prove an ancient Far East maxim: “Disastrous leadership delivers disastrous results.”

In fact, disaster is already staring society right in the face with extra-alarm flashing red lights warning of collapsing food webs in tropical rainforests, which is ample evidence that anthropogenic climate change is already happening right under society’s collective noses. (The referenced study: Bradford C. Lister and Andres Garcia, Climate-Driven Declines in Arthropod Abundance Restructure a Rainforest Food Web, Proceedings of the National Academies.

It goes without saying that a 40-year study of loss of a major food web in a pristine tropical rainforest, which happens to be a protected nature preserve, is mind-boggling beyond words, stuff that brings on sleepless nights, leaving serious students of climate change speechless.

The scientists of the rainforest study believe they are already seeing today what the IPCC predicted for climate change in 2040. Worse yet, a collapsing pristine rainforest is a powerful harbinger of the unraveling of natural life support ecosystems. Nothing could be worse! Ergo, it is remarkable that major countries ignore this symptom of impending disaster for all, rich and poor alike.

If major countries took the loss of a food web in a pristine rainforest seriously, there would be a declaration of war announced to advance renewable energy ASAP! But, no, there are no major initiatives announced by major countries, nothing on the order of a Marshall Plan.

According to a lead scientist of the rainforest study: “The central question addressed by our research is why simultaneous, long-term declines in arthropods, lizards, frogs, and birds have occurred over the past four decades in the relatively undisturbed rainforests of northeastern Puerto Rico. Our analyses provide strong support for the hypothesis that climate warming has been a major factor driving reductions in arthropod abundance, and that these declines have in turn precipitated decreases in forest insectivores in a classic bottom-up cascade.” (Lister), Ibid.

After a certain thermal threshold, insects no longer lay eggs, and their internal chemistry breaks down. This is what happens in the rainforests when global warming cranks up temperatures to 2.0C, or above, which coincidentally is the upper barrier that the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) set as a guardrail to prevent serious consequences of global warming.

The rainforests are living proof of the IPCC warning of a “guardrail at 1.5-2.0C” above pre-industrial temperatures beyond which climate change negatively impacts (destroys) ecosystems that support life.

Indeed, in a separate study of a biosphere reserve in western Mexico, scientists found similar results over a period of 34 years, 1980 to 2014. Temperatures increased by 2.4°C and biomass of insects, and arthropods in general, declined 8-fold, which is a sobering omen of very tough times ahead for any species that depends upon ecosystems for survival, which includes pretty much everybody.

So, as it happens, future climate change is already here 20 years ahead of schedule as found in the planet’s most pristine areas where humans seldom, if ever, tread, and it’s deadly!

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Robert Hunziker View more

Robert Hunziker
Robert Hunziker (MA, economic history) is a freelance writer and environmental journalist whose articles have been translated into foreign languages and appeared in over 50 journals, magazines, and sites worldwide. He can be contacted at: rlhunziker@gmail.com

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