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When Brexit Emotions “Trump” Thoughtful Logic, You Get CHAOS!

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by Denis G. Campbell

Passionate supporters of Britain leaving the EU or ‘the Brexit,’ are not dissimilar to Donald Trump sycophants. They stick their fingers in their ears, sing “la-la-laaa, I’m not listening, la-la-laaa” and are convinced that Ukip leader Nigel Farage (aka The Donald of the UK) and his xenophobic call for racist British ‘purity,’ have it right and the Remain camp have EVERYTHING wrong. But no one in the leave campaign can make a factual argument to support their “we’ll be alright, just let us be free” argument.

The posts sound the same. “It may be difficult for a couple of years but we’re better off OUT and finding our own way!”

Well we are not in 1940s Britain anymore where “the sun never set on the British Empire.”

It does set and often for very long periods of time.

Fact/Reality Checking

Britain has a market of 60 million people. The USA has almost 6x that amount. We seem satisfied and prepared to walk away from an EU market of 500 million (half a billion) people. We’ll say farewell to 15% of the globe’s population because we are unable to wield a big enough stick to force change, yet feel OUT of the EU we will do much better?

No matter where you studied maths, the EU will be eager to deal with the USA, China and Asia LONG before they talk with our relatively tiny UK market. Global trade is about access to HUGE markets. As President Obama said here, the USA will be looking to make trans-global deals. The UK will not be ANYONE’s priority.

remain inBy going it alone we will lose business, jobs and stagnate an already weak economy. And… it takes an average of 28 months to negotiate new trade deals. So do we expect markets that move violently when the USA only added 38,000 jobs in May to sit blithely by and wait for the UK to get its act together? No. Markets fluctuate in a world of high frequency trades where share whip around in nanoseconds. They can crash a market in a matter of hours.

  • Brexiters speak of ‘quickly’ cutting a Norway-like deal with the EU? Really? Norway allows free passage (it was a deal buster) and still pays huge fees to trade in the EU.
  • Brexiters say, “we’ll get our national sovereignty back?” We never lost it. EVERY nation in the EU has a veto. When this subject comes up in press conferences? Boris, Gove and other Brexit leaders simply say, “next question please.”
  • Brexiters incessantly quote a fee of £350 million pound paid per week to Europe but fail to mention our rebates, grants and contracts lowering that figure by almost two-thirds. Despite being called out repeatedly as false, they continue to press the lie.

Fear the bogeyman other!

Indeed the only thing Brexiters have left to push is a racist, Islamophobic message against immigration. They have zero qualms deliberately conflating economic migration with the current refugee crisis. Last week 700 human beings drowned off the coast of Libya when their makeshift and overloaded ‘boat’ capsized. Several hundred more were rescued Friday. Would Brexiters prefer they just drown? There is zero reaction to human tragedy, just make sure immigration is ‘not in my back yard.’ Simply, the economic arguments no longer work so this message of hate and intolerance is the only way to win.

Some foolishly believe we’ll be able to go back in two years or so, hold a second referendum and demand our way back in… on our terms. How on earth (and in what Universe) will that happen? While most EU leaders say they hope we will stay, if we leave, the attitude will rightly become, “don’t let the door hit you on the way out!”

I lost an anger election for the Welsh Assembly last month. You cannot argue logically with gut feeling. The head was never involved in the Brexit OUT decision. So when you attempt to reason, you lose. So these last three weeks will gin up white hot rage of some unknown ‘other’ taking your job through immigration because Brexiters cannot win the referendum any other way!

What’s really at stake

This election and the coming US Presidential election have stoked passion and anger. They will not stoke rational thought about the very real consequences of Brexit. They believe the ONLY solution is to throw everyone and everything out and start over.

investment in EUWell that might work… if the markets also went along. Everyone says it will take two years to unwind the UK from the EU?

Try overnight devastation… If we vote leave there will be a chain reaction of events we may not ever recover from:

  • The pound sterling will be reduced to rubble.
  • The stock market will crash.
  • The economy will crater.
  • Crippling trade duties on many export goods will reappear.
  • Markets drive money, investment and business away from a crippled Britain.
  • Businesses are already making hiring decisions based on UK citizenship, locking EU applicants out.
  • Farmers will lose their EU grants and face export restrictions as crops are harvested.
  • Grant applications that fund emerging bio-tech, higher education and scientific communities will dry up overnight.
  • Our blue EU travel health cards which guarantee medical treatment will be invalid.
  • Construction projects across the UK funded by EU grants will grind to a halt.
  • Third culture families will wonder about their immigration status, no matter how long they have resided here.
  • The six million plus British ex-pats living in Spain and other EU nations will see their visas torn up.
  • Travel across Europe will become much more expensive and restrictive for UK citizens.

But hey! We’ll be sovereign” We’ll be free!

A Market of 60 million vs 500 million

The market will not be kind to a 60 million person United Kingdom. How good a trade deal would you give if you were the 500 million person EU market the UK just shunned?

Our crippled Prime Minister had zero leverage in his spring negotiations. How much more will his successor have? He failed to reduce the amount of money we spend or control borders and immigration. Yet he declared victory and quickly pushed his chips into the centre of the table calling for this referendum? What exactly did he do but arrange deck chairs on the Titanic? Gamblin’ David Cameron got VERY lucky with the Scotland In or Out referendum. He decided to push his luck in the hope that sanity would trump anger? Such craven buffoonery will end his tenure… win or lose.

us and uk brexitAnd Brexiters look to The Donald, a thin-skinned, perpetually angry and petulant man-child businessman as an example? He’s going to build a wall on the Mexican border. Yet as this map shows, Trump’s wall will be built in a way that will insult and affect US southern border states biggest trading partners?

How is Brexit any different?

How sympathetic will the EU be if we thumb our noses as we leave? Brexit makes zero sense. Emotion and anger must be tempered with fact and reason. Stay in and change it from within by negotiation vs. fiat. Vote remain or watch the death of this economy before the end of the calendar year.

Denis G Campbell View more

Denis G Campbell
Denis G. Campbell is founder and editor of UK Progressive magazine and co-host of The Three Muckrakers podcast. He is the author of 7 books and provides Americas, EU and Middle Eastern commentary to the BBC, itv, Al Jazeera English, CNN, CRI, MSNBC and others. He is CEO of Monknash Media and a principal with B2E Consulting in London. You can follow him on Twitter @UKProgressive and on Facebook.

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