Starvation, Riots, War – The Sleeping Climate Giants

Scientists are warning of a potential Arctic meltdown that could have catastrophic consequences for the global economy, political stability and food production. The NASA-led Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) is in its third year of assessing the release of greenhouse gases in the Arctic. 

Led by Charles Miller of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, the team of two-dozen researchers from twelve institutions, including the Langley Research Center, are taking measurements from a C-23 Sherpa aircraft flying at 500 feet. They are using sophisticated instruments, such as a spectrometer, to measure the levels of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. The samples are then sent to the University of Colorado’s Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research Stable Isotope Laboratory and Radiocarbon Laboratory in Boulder for analysis. 

According to Miller, the first year of studies has yielded some unexpected and potentially troubling results. He noted that the team had observed “large, regional-scale episodic bursts of higher-than-normal carbon dioxide and methane in interior Alaska and across the North Slope during the spring thaw, and they lasted until after the fall refreeze.” CARVE is searching for evidence of a possible tipping point in the Arctic, but scientists are yet to find any definitive proof. As Miller put it, “We hope CARVE may be able to find that ‘smoking gun,’ if one exists.”

World Food Production at Risk

The Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG), a group of the world’s most esteemed climate scientists, have sounded the alarm about the dangers of an Arctic meltdown. On their website, they state that “governments must put two and two together, and pull out all stops to save the Arctic sea ice or we will starve.” This warning is indicative of the strong conviction of the group, who are backed up by research from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University. 

Dr. Francis’ research has demonstrated that the retreat of sea ice in the Arctic is causing a disruption of jet stream behavior, which, in turn, produces weather extremes throughout the Northern Hemisphere. This has resulted in longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions, all of which have had a disastrous effect on agriculture in the Northern Hemisphere and world food production. 

The jet stream has moved northwards over 270 miles over the past 22 years, and is located at the top of the troposphere at 35,000-45,000 feet (7-9 miles) high, 200-300 mb in pressure. This is a cause for serious concern, and AMEG’s warnings must be taken seriously. Governments across the globe must take immediate action to prevent the planet from experiencing further extreme weather patterns and the potential for mass starvation.

Worldwide Extreme Weather Conditions

Recent years have seen extreme weather events around the world, which have been linked to the loss of Arctic sea-ice. In 2012, a ‘blocking weather pattern’ in the US caused remarkable March heat and the worst drought since 1950, according to the US Department of Agriculture. In the Middle East, Syria experienced a series of droughts from 2006-2011, with up to 60% of land affected. India suffered its second major drought in four years, resulting in the largest power outage in world history. In Russia, a severe drought in 2010 led to a ban on grain exports and an estimated 50,000 extra deaths. China has experienced its worst drought in 200 years, affecting 400 million people. Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters has warned of the potential for a ‘perfect storm of events’ in the near future, with droughts made worse by climate change contributing to disruption of the global economy, political turmoil and war.

And, the Flooding

MPs in the UK have raised alarm bells over the country’s food security due to the intensifying downpours brought on by climate change. Since 2011, the UK has experienced a series of poor weather conditions, resulting in extensive flooding and a net import of wheat. 

In Central Europe, rescue teams have been working to protect cities from some of the worst flooding in years, while farmers brace for major losses that could affect the entire growing season. This follows a series of extreme weather events in the EU, including a severe drought in southern Europe and extreme flooding in the UK. 

The weather is adjusting to the anomalous jet streams caused by a warming Arctic, which is heating up two to three times faster than the planet as a whole. Floods and droughts are becoming a global issue, with devastating effects on food security.

The Food Threat and Food Riots

Naturally, instability results when food costs are growing quickly. We’ve observed [this] over the past five years in a variety of nations, and you can very immediately convert rising food costs into street protests. Interview with Isobel Coleman about the U.S. drought and increasing food prices worldwide, Council on Foreign Relations, August 2, 2012.

The FAO FOOD PRICE INDEX (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)

The FAO Food Price Index (United Nations) has seen a dramatic increase over the past decade, with nominal terms more than doubling and real terms up by over 50%. This new higher plateau in worldwide food prices is likely due to abnormal agricultural conditions, such as droughts and floods. According to a Council on Foreign Relations article, this could lead to political instability in countries heavily reliant on food imports, with food riots having already erupted worldwide from 2007 to 2009. Tim Benton, professor of Ecology at the University of Leeds and head of the UK’s Global Food Partnership, has warned that extreme weather could lead to the destruction of local agricultural production. 

The effects of climate change have been felt around the world, with Arctic ice melting at its fastest rate ever, leading to the release of methane into the atmosphere. Despite the severity of the situation, people are still struggling to take action. Steps taken to curb the effects of climate change have been small, and the message from AMEG is that people must take an active role in order to fix the issue. However, it remains to be seen who will take up the challenge.

World leaders have been warned of the urgent need for emergency intervention to stabilize Arctic sea ice and thereby Arctic methane, which is now a matter of our survival. The latest research expedition to the region witnessed methane plumes on an unprecedented scale, to equal methane emissions from all the other oceans put together. According to the recognized world authorities on Arctic sea ice, Prof. Wadhams and Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski, there is a 5-10% possibility of the Arctic being ice free in September 2013, more likely 2015, and with 95% confidence by 2018. This is the point of no return for summer sea ice, and once past this point, it could prove impossible to reverse the retreat by any kind of intervention. The conditions that could result in vast quantities of methane being released in the Arctic are clearly developing, and the potential impacts of inaction are well-known – runaway climate change. On a more positive note, human ingenuity may offer a solution to the agricultural problems associated with extreme climate change. 

The world’s first commercial Vertical Farm is located in Singapore, built by Sky Greens Farms, producing one ton of fresh veggies every other day, which are sold in local supermarkets. This low carbon hydraulic water-driven, tropical vegetable urban Vertical Farm consists of 120 aluminum towers thirty feet tall, like giant greenhouses, jutting into the sky, and uses minimal land, water and energy. Although such ingenuity may help solve the world’s food problems in the face of impending extreme climate change, it will not resolve the onset of horrendous weather-related events. Astronaut Mike Collins (Apollo 11) summed up the fragility of our planet when he said: “Oddly enough the overriding sensation I got looking at the earth was, my god that little thing is so fragile out there.”

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