In Dutch Election Economy Could Trump Muslim, Immigration Fears

This week, the Dutch Tweede Kamer (Parliamentary lower chamber) will witness a heated debate over the country’s current economic malaise, the encroachment of Islam, taxes, fees and jobs for its 150 seats. The election has been difficult to predict, as daily headlines about the global economy have overshadowed fears of Islamic encroachment, diminishing the popularity of the controversial Geert Wilders and his PVV (Party for Freedom). According to MP Harry van Bommel of the Socialist Party (SP), “the issue of Islam has people not as bothered. When they are worrying about their own wallets, head scarves are a minor issue compared to paying more taxes and larger fees. People are now worried about jobs and money.” 

The current Christian Democrats (CDA) and Labour (PvdA) coalition government collapsed 90-days ago when Labour resigned, citing disagreement over the decision to extend the military/combat mission in Afghanistan. Most analysts agreed this was a ‘straw man’ argument and that Labour/PvdA wanted to distance itself from the impending budget cuts of between €10-20 billion euros. New PvdA leader Job Cohen, the long-time mayor of Amsterdam, has a more executive-style approach to politics. 

The election has been overshadowed by a tragic early morning airplane crash in Libya, which claimed the lives of 66 Dutch citizens travelling home from holidays in South Africa. This led to the cancellation of the launch events of the two main parties, CDA and SP. CDA, the party of Minister-President Jan Peter Balkenende, has fallen from favour, and is blamed for the current economic situation. Balkenende has urged the Dutch not to vote for Wilders, comparing him unfavourably to the party leader he initially failed to form a government with after the assassination of their leader Pim Fortuyn. Turkish PM Erdogan also branded Wilders a “total freak” and said “entrepreneurs should not vote for him as his statements will damage Dutch exports.” 

The SP, the Netherlands’ third largest party, has seen its membership grow from 9 to 25 seats, but their recent losses in municipal elections cost party leader Agnes Kant her job in March. Despite the change of leadership to a more youthful Emile Roemer, the party could lose up to 60% of the seats it gained in this election. 

The opposition Liberal Party (VVD), led by Mark Rutte, is currently quietly in the lead. They will likely be joined by the other Liberal Party (D-66) and could also gain support from the Green Party. However, this will not give them a governing majority, so they may be forced to reach out to Wilders. Whoever wins, it could take a long time to form a coalition government.

The UK saw the rise of far-right, single-issue parties such as the BNP and UKIP during the EU Parliamentary elections last summer, which saw a low turnout of only 30%. Nick Griffin, the leader of the BNP, was able to secure one seat in the EU Parliament, but was unable to replicate his success in the UK General Election, which saw 70% turnout and no BNP seats in the House of Commons. 

In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders and his party have seen their fortunes decline in recent years. Wilders’ campaign equating Islam with racism and terrorism has seen his party fall from 30 seats to 17. Prime Minister Mark Rutte has warned against comparing Wilders to Pim Fortuyn, a politician who was assassinated in 2002 and whose party won 26 seats in the election that followed. 

The upcoming election in the Netherlands is likely to be a close one, with the main parties proposing cuts to healthcare, services and defence. With 16 million people in the country, the outcome of the election will depend on how many of them turn out to vote and how angry they are. It appears that a sea change is coming to the Netherlands, and the result will be determined in the coming weeks.

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