This is The Monday Line
by Denis G. Campbell
This is my 11th US Presidential election as a voter, 5th as a commentator. Most elections are emotional, well-fought affairs between gentlemen (Secretary Clinton being the first woman ever to represent a major political party) who behaved as such right through the final vote count. When a winner was declared, the loser called the winning candidate to graciously concede.
- That could change this year as Donald J. Trump now says he would question the legitimacy of the election if he loses?
Since 1976, the candidates have participated in the quadrennial television debates.
- Now the rumblings are Donald Trump may skip the next two debates?
The candidates often attack each other and their policies and strongly pushed their points to win over their base and undecided voters.
- They rarely, if ever, incited violence, courted overt white supremacists, pushed a race baiting agenda, urged bands of vigilantes to ‘monitor’ the vote in minority neighbourhoods, to protect against voter fraud, questioned the process and/or threatened to deny a outcome they did not like via second amendment remedies (i.e. assassination).
What makes this election so different?
Well we could start with the sheer tonnage of bad news in one week that would have sunk most mainstream politicians. They would recognise the jeopardy they place their party in and resign for the good of that party. Not Donald Trump. He said earlier in the campaign that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and his polls would not suffer. And indeed despite an avalanche of bad news, polls are close enough in several states to question if one can reliably predict a Democratic win?
During this week alone:
- EVERY major newspaper has thus far refused to endorse him as the Republican presidential nominee. EVERY one.
- Trump draws 0% voter support in the city of Detroit (where the major paper there has endorsed a Republican for its entire 100 year plus history).
- Other staunchly conservative newspapers in Florida, Arizona and other cities either endorse the Democratic nominee or one of the crazed third party candidate because they cannot endorse the Democrat.
- USA Today broke a 34-year tradition of neutrality. They never endorse, But this year their independent editorial board, felt compelled to advise the nation against voting for Donald J. Trump as president. The Washington Post is similarly urging people not to vote for Trump publishing a 4-part series entitled, ‘The Clear and Present Danger of Donald Trump.’
- The Republican nominee was up between 3:00 and 5:30 am on Friday morning slut-shaming a former Hispanic Miss Universe on Twitter in a vicious personal attack directing people to a discredited sex tape.
- Later that day it was revealed that Donald Trump broke federal laws doing business in Cuba during the embargo. He was trying to gain a foothold for his hotel business whilst decrying anyone who does business with the Castro’s?
- It was revealed later that day that this great businessman managed to lose nearly a billion dollars, claim the loss on his taxes and allegedly paid zero taxes for nearly two decades AND… IS PROUD OF IT.
- He then blamed the broken tax code that allowed him to pay no taxes on President Obama and Hillary Clinton (who as Secretary of State had zero impact on the tax code).
We clearly have an unprecedented problem.
So is the ‘horse-race’ real?
I say no. Of course Donald J. Trump could defeat Hillary Clinton on 08 November 2016. And here is why I think Hillary Clinton is winning and will become President-Elect and the 45th President of the United States.
- I’ve been dragged kicking and screaming into the uncertainty of the Main Stream Media’s horse race meme. Yet I still believe in the power of demographics over sound bytes and the numbers still do not work for the GOP candidate.
- Women of college educated backgrounds are so offended by Trump’s misogyny they will vote for Hillary Clinton.
- Despite suppression efforts in swing states, there will be a record Hispanic and African American turnout this year.
- Moderate Republicans, fearing a Trump presidency will retreat into the sanctity and privacy of the voting booth and pull the lever for Hillary.
- Hillary will win every state President Obama won except Iowa and add Arizona and Georgia to her tally.
- The Democrats will take the Senate and only Ohio Senator Portman will be safe as Florida’s Marco Rubio is turned away.
- The Democrats will fall two seats short in the US House though leading to continued legislative gridlock.
- Republicans will finally fire Reince Preibus as their Party Chairman and
- Paul Ryan will win his seat but fail in his bid to retain the House Speakership.
So there is my prediction.
In ‘08 and ‘16 I was within 5 and 9 electoral votes of perfect. So the final electoral vote tally this time will be 352 for Clinton and 186 for Trump. (My Congressional midterm and UK Parliament predictions were not as good.)
Pray I get it right this time.